EV carbon footprint vs petrol and diesel: the real numbers for Belgium

The argument comes up at every family dinner. My brother-in-law, a convinced diesel driver, always plays the same card: "With battery manufacturing, your electric car pollutes as much as my Golf TDI." Driving home on the E411 one Sunday evening, I decided to lay out the numbers once and for all — not opinions, data.

Does an EV really emit less CO2 than a diesel over its full lifecycle?

Yes, and the difference is not marginal. According to the ICCT (July 2025), an average EV sold in Europe emits about 63 g CO2/km over its entire lifecycle, versus 235 g for petrol — nearly 4 times less.

In Belgium, the numbers are clear. An EV with a 60 kWh battery, driven 200,000 km on the Belgian grid, emits approximately 21 tonnes of CO2 in total — manufacturing of the vehicle and battery included. A comparable diesel over the same distance: 50 to 55 tonnes, everything included from well to wheel. VUB's MOBI research centre reaches the same conclusion: an EV emits 65% less CO2 than a combustion vehicle over its full lifecycle in Belgium.

This ratio depends on the electricity mix. In Poland (coal-dominant), the advantage narrows to about 1.5 times. In France (nuclear-dominant) or Norway (hydroelectric), it jumps to 4 or 5. Belgium ranks among the top in Europe thanks to its two extended reactors (Doel 4 and Tihange 3) and North Sea offshore wind.

How much CO2 does manufacturing an EV battery produce?

This is the question that fuels the debate. Manufacturing a lithium-ion battery in 2025 produces between 65 and 80 kg of CO2 per kWh of capacity (IEA Global EV Outlook 2025). For a 60 kWh battery — the size of a Tesla Model 3 Standard or entry-level Hyundai Ioniq 5 — that works out to approximately 4,200 kg of CO2.

By comparison, manufacturing a combustion vehicle of the same size emits about 6,000 to 8,000 kg of CO2 in total (chassis + engine + gearbox + exhaust system). A complete EV: approximately 10,000 to 12,000 kg. The battery accounts for virtually all of the carbon manufacturing surplus.

The battery's carbon surplus is real — about 3,500 kg more CO2 than a diesel straight off the production line. But you pay back that debt by driving. In Belgium, it's settled in under 30,000 km.

These numbers are dropping fast. European gigafactories like Northvolt in Sweden already produce at ~40 kg CO2/kWh using low-carbon electricity. CATL and BYD are investing heavily in solar to power their Chinese plants. By 2030, the manufacturing surplus should shrink by 30 to 50%.

What is the carbon footprint per km of an EV on the Belgian grid?

This is where the Belgian electricity mix makes a real difference. The Belgian grid emits approximately 134 g of CO2 per kWh produced (Elia, 2025 annual report), thanks to a mix of:

• 34% nuclear (Doel 4 and Tihange 3, extended to 2035)
• 34% renewable (North Sea offshore wind, solar, biomass)
• 19% natural gas
• 13% imports and other

Since 2020, the carbon intensity has dropped from 222 to 134 g CO2/kWh — a 40% reduction in five years, driven by solar growth (10.1 TWh in 2025) and wind (12.3 TWh). The closures of Doel 1, 2 and Tihange 1 in 2025 were offset by renewables and imports.

An EV consumes an average of 17 to 20 kWh per 100 km (sales-weighted WLTP average). On the Belgian grid, that gives:

0.18 kWh/km × 134 g CO2/kWh = approximately 24 g CO2 per km.

An average diesel in Belgium (Volkswagen Golf TDI, Peugeot 308 BlueHDi) emits 120 to 140 g CO2/km at the tailpipe. Adding petroleum extraction and refining (well-to-tank), the figure reaches 150 to 170 g CO2/km.

On my regular Brussels–Namur round trip (130 km), my real-world consumption runs about 19 kWh/100 km. That's 3.3 kg of CO2 for the journey. In a diesel, that's around 17 to 20 kg. Every weekend visiting my parents, I "save" 14 to 17 kg of CO2.

After how many kilometres does an EV offset its carbon debt?

This is the calculation everyone should run before claiming an EV "pollutes just as much". The manufacturing carbon surplus of an EV over a diesel is approximately 3,500 kg of CO2 (mainly the battery). The driving emissions gap is about 130 g/km in the EV's favour on the Belgian grid (24 g vs ~155 g well-to-wheel).

3,500 kg ÷ 0.130 kg/km = approximately 27,000 km.

In Belgium, the average driver covers 15,500 km per year (SPF Mobility, 2024). The carbon break-even point is therefore reached in under 2 years. The ICCT (2025) reaches a comparable figure for the EU average: approximately 17,000 km, thanks to accelerated grid greening.

After this threshold, every kilometre in an EV widens the gap. Over 200,000 km, the cumulative advantage reaches 25 to 32 tonnes of avoided CO2 — equivalent to 6 to 8 return flights from Brussels to New York.

With solar panels, the break-even drops below 22,000 km. If your EV is charged exclusively on solar, the carbon advantage is reached within the first year.

What happens to batteries at end of life? The Belgian case of Umicore

Battery end-of-life is the other classic sceptic's argument. Two answers.

Second life. When an EV battery loses 20 to 30% of its capacity (after 200,000 to 300,000 km depending on the model), it remains usable as stationary storage: powering buildings, smoothing solar production, supporting the grid. Renault, BMW and Volkswagen already have operational reuse programmes.

Recycling. Belgium is home to a key player: Umicore, based in Hoboken (Antwerp). The company recovers cobalt, nickel, lithium and copper at recovery rates above 95%. The EU Battery Regulation (2023) mandates 70% recycling by 2030 and 80% by 2035 — with minimum quotas of recycled materials required in new batteries.

VUB (Vrije Universiteit Brussel), through its MOBI research centre, is working on recycling optimisation and LFP (lithium iron phosphate) battery chemistry, which uses neither cobalt nor nickel. These batteries already power the BYD Dolphin, Tesla Model 3 Standard and MG4 sold in Belgium.

The Life Cycle Impact label, developed by VITO/EnergyVille and adopted by all three Belgian Regions, accounts for production (battery included), fuel or electricity, and usage over 200,000 km. A practical tool to compare two models on their full environmental impact, not just tailpipe CO2.

What if I don't drive much — is the EV still cleaner?

Even for a low-mileage driver (8,000 km/year), the EV is still cleaner over its lifecycle in Belgium. The carbon break-even is reached in 3.5 to 4 years instead of 2. Over 150,000 km of total vehicle life, the EV still emits 15 to 20 tonnes less CO2 than a diesel.

The only scenario where an EV is not clearly cleaner: a small battery charged exclusively on a very carbon-intensive grid (like Poland at 700 g CO2/kWh) with under 5,000 km/year. In Belgium, that scenario does not exist.